June 19, 2025
Top 10 Stock UPM Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UPM – Top 10 Stock in Optionsmäklarna Helsinki Stock Exchange Helsinki Index OMX 25
UPM is listed as a top 10 stock on June 19, 2025 in the market index OMX 25 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment from a financial fact perspective where only investor sentiment is a reason for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 69 (high 69% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for UPM on June 19, 2025.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Finland |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UPM Buy
| 360 METRICS | June 19, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 63 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 77 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 41 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 69 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UPM are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for UPM. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 63, which means that the share price of UPM is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 63% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety Rank of 77. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of only 41. Professional investors are more confident in 59% other stocks. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 69, UPM is better positioned than 69% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 63), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51), and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 77), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the professional market sentiment is on the riskier side (Sentiment Rank of 41), but that could also mean an overreaction to negative news in the past. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been enjoying above average growth and are still a good value, this may not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of UPM is as challenging as the low price of the stock despite good growth and safe financing practices suggest. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you may want to reflect these negative opinions in light of what you find reasonable to expect for the future. If you believe this pessimistic view is transitory, you have a solid investment case based on current financial factors. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UPM only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UPM is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for UPM. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 48 (worse than 52% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 45, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 14, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 86% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for UPM is Market Pulse, with a rank of 67, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 67% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 41 (less encouraging than 59% compared with investment alternatives), UPM has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: UPM Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for UPM. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 61 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 61% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning UPM's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 45, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 45% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 70% of alternatives (only 30% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 8% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: UPM Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), UPM shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPM. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 86, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 42% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 47 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 53% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 42 and Stock Returns with a rank of 31 are also low (below 69% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for UPM is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UPM Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | June 19, 2025 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 62 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 37 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 90 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 77 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2025, the company UPM has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 90, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UPM Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | June 19, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 63 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 90 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 81 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of UPM are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 77), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 81, is a strong buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. As the company UPM's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 77), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of UPM. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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