Fact based stock research
UPM (HLSE:UPM)

FI0009005987

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

UPM stock research in summary

upm.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UPM are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 85, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. As the company UPM's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 85), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 51% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	51
Growth Rank	33
Safety Rank	85
Combined Rank	69

Country	Finland
Industry	Paper Products
Index	OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Insight 2019-06-07, Top 10 Stock.

31-Jul-2025. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: UPM

RESEARCH HISTORY	2022	2023	2024	2025
VALUE
VALUE	31	41	40	51
GROWTH
GROWTH	33	37	70	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	63	83	85
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	64	84	66	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	64	76	85	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 31-Jul-2025. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Mar-2025. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better UPM is in the corresponding investment strategy.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.

Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2022	2023	2024	2025
VALUE
VALUE	31	41	40	51
GROWTH
GROWTH	33	37	70	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	63	83	85
COMBINED
COMBINED	47	55	81	69

Last update of combined financial performance: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of UPM the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPM. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 92% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 33 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 67% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning UPM's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 45 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 55% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 48 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 52% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick UPM? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose UPM only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	19	13	19	33
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	26	46	35	45
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	49	42	42	48
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	71	76	92	92
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	31	41	40	51

Last update of Value Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of UPM; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), UPM shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPM. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 70, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 19% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 45 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 55% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 19 and Stock Returns with a rank of 37 are also low (below 63% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for UPM is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	38	63	55	45
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	79	38	51	19
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	14	9	78	70
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	51	49	60	37
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	33	37	70	33

Last update of Growth Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of UPM.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with alternatives) for 2025, the company UPM has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with UPM and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	82	64	73	66
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	53	31	38	45
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	81	74	87	91
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	89	63	83	85

Last update of Safety Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of UPM and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2022	2023	2024	2025
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	47	51	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	78	69	15	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	40	80	76	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	76	77	74	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	64	84	66	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for UPM.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.