January 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock Provident Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Provident – Top 10 Stock in FTSE 350 Index
Provident is listed as a top 10 stock on January 25, 2024 in the market index FTSE 350 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 38 (38% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Provident on January 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Consumer Finance |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350 |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Provident Hold
| 360 METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 94 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 67 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 12 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 38 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Provident are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Provident. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 94, which means that the share price of Provident is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 94% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 67. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 12. Professional investors are more confident in 88% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 3, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 97 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 38, Provident is worse than 62% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 94), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 67). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 12), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 3). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Provident negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Provident is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Provident. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 14 (worse than 86% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Provident. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 43, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 57% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 19, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 81% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 12 (less encouraging than 88% compared with investment alternatives), Provident has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Provident Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Provident shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Provident. Price-to-Sales is 91 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Provident's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 89% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 91. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Provident are expected to be higher than for 85% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 85). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 94, is a buy recommendation based on Provident's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Provident based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Provident Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), Provident shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Provident. While Sales Growth ranks at 67, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 67% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 99% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 4. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 8 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 92% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Provident Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 16 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 51 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 90 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 67 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), the company Provident has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Provident is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Provident. Refinancing is at 51, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 51% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 90, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 16, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 84% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Provident has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Provident could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Provident Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 94 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 90 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 61 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Provident (Consumer Finance, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Provident are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 94 (better than 94% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 67, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation based on Provident's financial characteristics. As the company Provident's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 94) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 67), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 94% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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