May 25, 2023
Top 10 Stock OceanaGold Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: OceanaGold – Top 10 Stock in Copper Mining and Production
OceanaGold is listed as a top 10 stock on May 25, 2023 in the market index Copper because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 75 (top 75% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for OceanaGold on May 25, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Copper, Gold, TSX Composite |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° Assessment OceanaGold Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | May 25, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 75 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 48 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 86 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 75 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock OceanaGold are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for OceanaGold. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 75, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 75% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 86, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 86% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 40, which means that the share price of OceanaGold is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 60% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 48, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than 52% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a 360° View of 75, OceanaGold is better than 75% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 75), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 86), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least important of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take one minus the growth rank, that is the minimum level that the value rank should have. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes they are right. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for OceanaGold very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock OceanaGold is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for OceanaGold. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 80 (better than 80% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 73, which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic. Obermatt Market Pulse further supports this with a rank of 52, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are generally positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 52% of competitors). But there are few stock holdings by institutional investors. The Professional Investors rank is low at 31, which means that currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 69% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 86 (more positive than 86% compared with investment alternatives), OceanaGold has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Not having too many professionals invested in OceanaGold may be less of an issue, especially if the stock is from a smaller company. It is natural for professional investors to focus on large and extra-large companies, as they provide more safety. Smaller companies attract fewer professionals in the shareholder community. Overall, the signals from the professionals are still quite favorable for investments in OceanaGold. ...read more
Value Strategy: OceanaGold Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), OceanaGold shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for OceanaGold. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 55 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning OceanaGold's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with the Price-to-Book Rank of 71, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 71% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 56% of alternatives (only 44% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a HOLD recommendation based on OceanaGold's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. This needs to be investigated, and the company's optimism verified before making a stock purchasing decision. ...read more
Growth Strategy: OceanaGold Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2023, OceanaGold shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for OceanaGold. Sales Growth has a rank of 67 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 67% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 60, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 65, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 47, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 53% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 75, is a BUY recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: OceanaGold Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | May 25, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 66 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 29 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 56 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 48 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), the company OceanaGold has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of OceanaGold is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for OceanaGold. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 56, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 56% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 29, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), OceanaGold has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for OceanaGold. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: OceanaGold Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | May 25, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 75 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 56 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 60 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with investment alternatives), OceanaGold (Gold Production, Australia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of OceanaGold are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 48, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 75). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: An Obermatt Combined Rank of 60, is a buy recommendation based on OceanaGold's financial characteristics. As the company OceanaGold shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 75% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 75). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than the sluggish variety. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for OceanaGold, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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