Fact based stock research
OceanaGold (TSX:OGC)
CA6752221037
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
OceanaGold stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with investment alternatives), OceanaGold (Gold Production, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of OceanaGold are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 68 (better than 68% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on OceanaGold's financial characteristics. As the company OceanaGold's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 68) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 61), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 29) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Copper, Gold, TSX Composite |
| Size class | Medium |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: OceanaGold
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
68 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 29 |
|
85 |
|
73 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
16 |
|
48 |
|
29 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
26 |
|
15 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
63 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with investment alternatives), OceanaGold (Gold Production, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of OceanaGold are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 68 (better than 68% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on OceanaGold's financial characteristics. As the company OceanaGold's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 68) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 61), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 29) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
68 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 29 |
|
85 |
|
73 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
16 |
|
48 |
|
29 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 2 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
46 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 68 (better than 68% compared with alternatives), OceanaGold shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for OceanaGold. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 68 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 68% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning OceanaGold's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 78, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 78% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 51% of alternatives (only 49% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 74% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 68, is a buy recommendation based on OceanaGold's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 56 |
|
73 |
|
61 |
|
49 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 9 |
|
82 |
|
75 |
|
68 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 90 |
|
89 |
|
80 |
|
78 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
27 |
|
26 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 33 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
68 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), OceanaGold shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for OceanaGold. Sales Growth has a rank of 60 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 60% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 66, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 50, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 48, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 52% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 48 |
|
85 |
|
95 |
|
60 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 69 |
|
83 |
|
47 |
|
66 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
88 |
|
51 |
|
48 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 10 |
|
23 |
|
43 |
|
50 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 29 |
|
85 |
|
73 |
|
61 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), the company OceanaGold has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of OceanaGold is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for OceanaGold and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 70 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 70% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 11, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 89% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 47, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 53% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), OceanaGold has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of OceanaGold are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with OceanaGold and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 12 |
|
58 |
|
64 |
|
70 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 48 |
|
29 |
|
19 |
|
11 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 22 |
|
10 |
|
63 |
|
47 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
16 |
|
48 |
|
29 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
25 |
|
78 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
31 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
32 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
26 |
|
15 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for OceanaGold from April 18, 2024.
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