May 11, 2023
Top 10 Stock Metsä Board Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Metsä Board – Top 10 Stock in Wood & Timber Industry
Metsä Board is listed as a top 10 stock on May 11, 2023 in the market index Timber Industry because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° Rank of 25 (25% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Metsä Board on May 11, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Finland |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | OMX 25, Dividends Europe, Energy Efficient, Renewables Users, Timber Industry |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° Assessment Metsä Board Hold
| 360 METRICS | May 11, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 86 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 23 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 25 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° Rank of 25 (better than 25% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Metsä Board are below the industry average. The 360° Rank is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Metsä Board. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 86, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 86% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 33, which means that the share price of Metsä Board is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 27, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 23, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 77% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a 360° Rank of 25, Metsä Board is worse than 75% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 23. The negative market view on Metsä Board may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least important of the four, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Metsä Board negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Metsä Board is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Metsä Board. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 68 (better than 68% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 55, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 55% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change is negative with a rank of 1, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse in recommending the company. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in Metsä Board. There are also only so many institutional investors holding company stock with a Professional Investors rank of 20, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 23 (less encouraging than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Metsä Board has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. The signals are ambivalent. The positive news in the market contradicts the negative change in analyst recommendations. Since the overall analyst recommendations are still above average, the stock may be safer for investing, especially if it is not an extra-large company where Pros tend to be less present. In such a case, the Pro Investor rank is not a problem. ...read more
Value Strategy: Metsä Board Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Metsä Board shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Metsä Board. Expected dividend yields are higher than 73% of comparable companies (a Dividend Yield rank of 73), making the stock attractive. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with an Obermatt Price-to-Book Rank of 57, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 57% of comparable investments. But in respect to sales and profits, the picture is reversed. Price-to-Sales has a value of 26 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Metsä Board's sales levels. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is also unfavorable for Metsä Board with a rank of 46. This means that the stock price, compared with what market professionals expect for future profits, is higher than 54% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Metsä Board's profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 33, is a HOLD recommendation based on Metsä Board's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The company seems confident that it can generate a reasonable return on invested capital, because it pays an above-average dividend while profits are below what you would expect for a company with this stock price. If you agree with this practice and believe that profits will return to higher levels, as the current dividend policy suggests, Metsä Board may be an attractive investment. If this is not the case, you may want to be careful with this stock as it is also expensive compared with its expected revenue levels. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Metsä Board Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), Metsä Board shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Metsä Board. While Sales Growth ranks at 71, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 71% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 29, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 71% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a rank of 19. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 21 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 79% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 27, is a HOLD recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Metsä Board Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | May 11, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 71 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 58 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 92 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 86 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Metsä Board has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Metsä Board is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Metsä Board. Leverage is at 71, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 71% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 58, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 58% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 92, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives), Metsä Board has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Metsä Board Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | May 11, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 92 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 50 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with investment alternatives), Metsä Board (Paper Products, Finland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Metsä Board are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 86), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: An Obermatt Combined Rank of 50, is a buy recommendation based on Metsä Board's financial characteristics. As the company Metsä Board's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 33) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 86) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be used in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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