September 28, 2023
Top 10 Stock Lynas Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Lynas – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 300
Lynas is listed as a top 10 stock on September 28, 2023 in the market index ASX 300 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is safely financed and the professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 69 (high 69% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Lynas on September 28, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Lynas Buy
| 360 METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 92 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 89 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 69 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Lynas are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for Lynas. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 89, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 89% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 92 or better than 92% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 6, meaning that the share price of Lynas is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 49. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 69, Lynas is better positioned than 69% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 89) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 92), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of Lynaṣ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Lynas very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Lynas is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for Lynas. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 68 (better than 68% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 62, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Lynas. The Professional Investors rank is 60, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 60% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 82 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 82% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 89 (more positive than 89% compared with investment alternatives), Lynas has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean Lynas stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: Lynas Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Lynas shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Lynas. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Lynas's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 28, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Lynas. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 31 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 88% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Lynas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Lynas? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Lynas? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Lynas may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Lynas Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 96 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 73 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 7 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 29 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 49 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Lynas shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Lynas. Sales Growth has a rank of 96, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 96% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 73 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 7, and Stock Returns with 29 are also below-average. Stock returns for Lynas have recently been below 71% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Lynas. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Lynas Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 72 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 65 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 94 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 92 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Lynas has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Lynas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Lynas. Leverage is at 72, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 72% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 65, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 94, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 94% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives), Lynas has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Lynas Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 94 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Lynas (Diversified Metals & Mining, Malaysia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Lynas are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 92), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Lynas's financial characteristics. As the company Lynas's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 6) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 92) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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