Fact based stock research
Lynas (ASX:LYC)

AU000000LYC6

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Lynas stock research in summary

lynasrareearths.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Lynas (Diversified Metals & Mining, Malaysia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Lynas are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 4 (worse than 96% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 21) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 83), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Lynas's financial characteristics. As the company Lynas's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 4) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 21), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 83) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	4
Growth Rank	21
Safety Rank	83
Combined Rank	14

Country	Malaysia
Industry	Diversified Metals & Mining
Index	ASX 200, ASX 300
Size class	Medium

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Lynas

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	10	3	6	4
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	89	37	21
SAFETY
SAFETY	84	49	85	83
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	27	53	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	23	37	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 18-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Lynas is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	10	3	6	4
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	89	37	21
SAFETY
SAFETY	84	49	85	83
COMBINED
COMBINED	80	39	30	14

Last update of combined financial performance: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Lynas the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Lynas shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Lynas. Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Lynas's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 32, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Lynas. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 19 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Lynas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Lynas? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Lynas? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Lynas may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	12	3	1	5
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	30	28	28	19
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8	15	34	32
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	10	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	10	3	6	4

Last update of Value Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Lynas; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), Lynas shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Lynas. While Sales Growth ranks at 100, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 100% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 8, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 92% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 7. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 33 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 67% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	83	90	100	100
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	80	82	39	8
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	23	4	7
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	94	97	33	33
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	93	89	37	21

Last update of Growth Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Lynas.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Lynas has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Lynas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Lynas. Leverage is at 74, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 74% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 59, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 94, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 94% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives), Lynas has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Lynas but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	74	62	72	74
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	52	31	61	59
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	77	54	94	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	84	49	85	83

Last update of Safety Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Lynas and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	27	72	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	24	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	29	24	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	60	79	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	27	53	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Lynas.
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