September 28, 2023
Top 10 Stock Kogan.com Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Kogan.com – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 300
Kogan.com is listed as a top 10 stock on September 28, 2023 in the market index ASX 300 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 4 (4% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Kogan.com on September 28, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Kogan.com Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 17 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 4 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Kogan.com are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Kogan.com. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 100, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 100% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 17 means that the share price of Kogan.com is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 83% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 33, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 67% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 17, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 83% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 4, Kogan.com is worse than 96% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Kogan.com shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 17), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 33). The negative market view on Kogan.com may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of Kogan.com compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Kogan.com negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Kogan.com is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Kogan.com. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Kogan.com. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 36, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 64% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 33, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 67% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 17 (less encouraging than 83% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Kogan.com Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Kogan.com. Price-to-Sales is 37 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 63% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Kogan.com's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 28, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Kogan.com. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 62% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Kogan.com's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Kogan.com? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Kogan.com? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Kogan.com may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Kogan.com Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 81 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 94 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 94 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 99 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Kogan.com shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Kogan.com. Sales Growth has a value of 81, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 81% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 94 and for Capital Growth with 94. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 99, which means they have been higher than 99% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Kogan.com exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Kogan.com Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 81 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 48 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 33 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), the company Kogan.com has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Kogan.com is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Kogan.com and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 81 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 81% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 48, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 52% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 6, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 94% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Kogan.com are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Kogan.com Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 10 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com (Internet Retail, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Kogan.com are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 33, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on Kogan.com's financial characteristics. As the company Kogan.com shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (83% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Kogan.com, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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