Fact based stock research
Kogan.com (ASX:KGN)
AU000000KGN2
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Kogan.com stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com (Internet Retail, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Kogan.com are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 42, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 42, is a hold recommendation based on Kogan.com's financial characteristics. As the company Kogan.com shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (87% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 87% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 87). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 42 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Kogan.com, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Internet Retail |
| Index | ASX 300 |
| Size class | Medium |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Kogan.com
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
42 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
12 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com (Internet Retail, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Kogan.com are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 42, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 42, is a hold recommendation based on Kogan.com's financial characteristics. As the company Kogan.com shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (87% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 87% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 87). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 42 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Kogan.com, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
42 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 72 |
|
4 |
|
58 |
|
42 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Kogan.com. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 51% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 26 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Kogan.com's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 10 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 90% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 16 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 84% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on Kogan.com's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Kogan.com? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Kogan.com only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 65 |
|
51 |
|
38 |
|
26 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 33 |
|
23 |
|
5 |
|
10 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 28 |
|
30 |
|
32 |
|
16 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
25 |
|
32 |
|
51 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
13 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Kogan.com shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Kogan.com. Sales Growth has a rank of 65 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 65% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 96, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 99, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 49 |
|
51 |
|
68 |
|
65 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
6 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
32 |
|
88 |
|
18 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 4 |
|
3 |
|
95 |
|
99 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 42 (better than 42% compared with alternatives), the company Kogan.com has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Kogan.com is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Kogan.com.Leverage is at 80, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 80% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 50, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 50% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 4, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 96% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Kogan.com more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 38 |
|
42 |
|
81 |
|
80 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 74 |
|
68 |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 74 |
|
42 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
42 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
24 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
63 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
59 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
12 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Kogan.com from April 18, 2024.
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