January 4, 2024
Top 10 Stock Alpha Metallurgical Resources Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Alpha Metallurgical Resources – Top 10 Stock in Jakarta Composite Index IDX Composite
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is listed as a top 10 stock on January 04, 2024 in the market index IDX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 30 (30% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Alpha Metallurgical Resources on January 04, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Steel |
| Index | IDX Composite |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Alpha Metallurgical Resources Hold
| 360 METRICS | January 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 24 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 45 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 90 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 30 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 30 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Alpha Metallurgical Resources are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 90, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 90% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 24, which means that the share price of Alpha Metallurgical Resources is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 45, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 30, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 70% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 30, Alpha Metallurgical Resources is worse than 70% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 30. The negative market view on Alpha Metallurgical Resources may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Alpha Metallurgical Resources only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Alpha Metallurgical Resources is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Alpha Metallurgical Resources. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 65, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 65% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 26, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 74% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 30 (less encouraging than 70% compared with investment alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Alpha Metallurgical Resources Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 24 (worse than 76% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 51, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Alpha Metallurgical Resources's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 44 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 56% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Alpha Metallurgical Resources's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 11 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 60% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 24, is a sell recommendation based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Alpha Metallurgical Resources Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 8, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 47, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 19. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 81% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 97, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 97% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Alpha Metallurgical Resources Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | January 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 90 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 57 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 87 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 90 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Alpha Metallurgical Resources has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Alpha Metallurgical Resources is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Leverage is at 90, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 90% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 57, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 87, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 87% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Alpha Metallurgical Resources Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 24 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 45 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 87 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 45 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (Steel, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alpha Metallurgical Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 24 (worse than 76% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 90), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources's financial characteristics. As the company Alpha Metallurgical Resources's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 24) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 90) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.