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Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE:CTRA)

US0207641061

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
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Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

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Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock research in summary

alphametresources.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (Steel, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alpha Metallurgical Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 53) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 84, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Alpha Metallurgical Resources exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 38), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 53). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 84) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country USA
Industry Steel
Index IDX Composite
Size class Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Research History: Alpha Metallurgical Resources

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Alpha Metallurgical Resources is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (Steel, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alpha Metallurgical Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 53) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 84, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Alpha Metallurgical Resources exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 38), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 53). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 84) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 22-Feb-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Alpha Metallurgical Resources the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 80, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 80% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Alpha Metallurgical Resources's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 47 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Alpha Metallurgical Resources's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 9 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 56% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Alpha Metallurgical Resources; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 49, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 16. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 97, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 97% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Alpha Metallurgical Resources.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 84 (better than 84% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Alpha Metallurgical Resources has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Alpha Metallurgical Resources is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Leverage is at a rank of 89, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 89% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 83, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 83% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 43, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 84 (better than 84% compared with alternatives), Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Alpha Metallurgical Resources and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 22-Feb-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Alpha Metallurgical Resources and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Alpha Metallurgical Resources.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Alpha Metallurgical Resources from March 14, 2024.

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