December 7, 2023
Top 10 Stock YPF Sell Recommendation

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For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).

360° View: Obermatt 360° View YPF Sell

360 METRICS	December 7, 2023
VALUE
VALUE	8
GROWTH
GROWTH	97
SAFETY
SAFETY	16
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	17
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	16

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock YPF are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for YPF. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 97, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 97% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 8 means that the share price of YPF is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 92% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 16, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 84% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 17, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 83% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 16, YPF is worse than 84% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that YPF shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 17), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 16). The negative market view on YPF may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of YPF compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more

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Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for YPF negative

SENTIMENT METRICS	December 7, 2023
ANALYST OPINION
ANALYST OPINION	28
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	19
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	57
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	28
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	17

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock YPF is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and the other half above average for YPF. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 19, which means that stock research experts are getting more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 28, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 72% of competitors). On the upside, the Professional Investors rank is 57, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 57% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. This could be due to a large company size, which could contribute to the higher share of professional investors in the company. If this is not the case, the low sentiment ranks are more challenging to explain. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 17 (less encouraging than 83% compared with investment alternatives), YPF has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Should the company be on the smaller side, the presence of professional investors could be reassuring. That would make YPF stock something like a hidden gem. Investors should make sure with further research that this is true, because all other sentiment indicators are negative which is a sign for caution. ...read more

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Value Strategy: YPF Stock Price Value low

VALUE METRICS	December 7, 2023
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	47
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	55
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	1
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	8

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), YPF shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for YPF. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 55, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning YPF's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 47 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning YPF's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 1 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on YPF's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then YPF is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. ...read more

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Growth Strategy: YPF Growth Momentum high

GROWTH METRICS	December 7, 2023
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	88
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	69
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	62
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	97

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2023, YPF shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for YPF. Sales Growth has a value of 88, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 69 and for Capital Growth with 62. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 100, which means they have been higher than 100% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, YPF exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more

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Safety Strategy: YPF Debt Financing Safety risky

SAFETY METRICS	December 7, 2023
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	46
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	17
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	25
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	16

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), the company YPF has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of YPF is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for YPF. Liquidity is at 25, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 75% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 46, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 54% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 17 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 83% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), YPF has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.

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Combined financial peformance: YPF Lowest Financial Performance

COMBINED PERFORMANCE	December 7, 2023
VALUE
VALUE	8
GROWTH
GROWTH	97
SAFETY
SAFETY	25
COMBINED
COMBINED	22

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), YPF (Oil & Gas Integrated, Argentina) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of YPF are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on YPF's financial characteristics. As the company YPF shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 8 (92% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 97% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 97). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 16 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for YPF, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more

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