October 5, 2023
Top 10 Stock YPF Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: YPF – Top 10 Stock in Low Emission Leaders
YPF is listed as a top 10 stock on October 05, 2023 in the market index Low Emissions because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 47 (47% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for YPF on October 05, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Argentina |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Index | MERVAL, Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Independent Boards Growth Markets, Water Efficiency |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View YPF Hold
| 360 METRICS | October 5, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 38 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 41 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 47 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock YPF are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for YPF. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 100, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 100% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 38 means that the share price of YPF is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 62% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 18, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 82% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 41, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 59% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 47, YPF is worse than 53% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 41), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 18). The negative market view on YPF may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of YPF compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for YPF only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock YPF is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for YPF. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 53 (better than 53% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting even more optimistic about investments in YPF. Finally, the Professional Investors rank is 80, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 41 (less encouraging than 59% compared with investment alternatives), YPF has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But there is also a signal for caution. Market Pulse has a rank of 16, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 84% of competitors). This could mean future risks and should make investors careful. Attention to negative news for YPF is worthwhile because they may be early warning signals. Without those, all other professional signals are encouraging, especially since analysts are getting more optimistic. ...read more
Value Strategy: YPF Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), YPF shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for YPF. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 67, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 67% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning YPF's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 85% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 51% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for YPF to 49. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on YPF's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: YPF Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | October 5, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 100 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 62 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 98 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 99 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2023, YPF shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for YPF. Sales Growth has a value of 100, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 100% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 62 and for Capital Growth with 98. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 99, which means they have been higher than 99% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, YPF exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: YPF Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | October 5, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 46 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 21 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 25 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), the company YPF has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of YPF is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for YPF. Liquidity is at 25, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 75% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 46, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 54% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 21 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), YPF has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: YPF Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 5, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 38 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 25 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 53 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with investment alternatives), YPF (Oil & Gas Integrated, Argentina) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of YPF are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation based on YPF's financial characteristics. As the company YPF shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 38 (62% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for YPF, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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