September 28, 2023
Top 10 Stock Xero Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Xero – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 300
Xero is listed as a top 10 stock on September 28, 2023 in the market index ASX 300 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 21 (21% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Xero on September 28, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Xero Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 43 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 21 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Xero are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Xero. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 92, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 92% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 6 means that the share price of Xero is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 94% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 18, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 82% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 43, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 57% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 21, Xero is worse than 79% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Xero shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 92), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 43), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 18). The negative market view on Xero may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of Xero compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Xero only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Xero is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for Xero. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 46, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 31, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 69% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for Xero is Market Pulse, with a rank of 62, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 62% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 43 (less encouraging than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Xero has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Xero Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Xero shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Xero. Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Xero's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 7, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Xero. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 8 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Xero's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Xero? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Xero? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Xero may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Xero Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 76 |
|
||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 96 |
|
||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 48 |
|
||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 82 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 92 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Xero shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Xero. Sales Growth has a rank of 76 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 76% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 96, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 82, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 48, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 52% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 92, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Xero Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 3 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 36 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 37 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 18 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), the company Xero has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Xero is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Xero. Liquidity is at 37, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 3, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 97% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 36 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 64% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), Xero has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Xero Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 28, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 37 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 16 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), Xero (Application Software, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Xero are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 92). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Xero's financial characteristics. As the company Xero shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (94% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 92% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 92). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Xero, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.