December 21, 2023
Top 10 Stock West Fraser Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: West Fraser – Top 10 Stock in Wood & Timber Industry
West Fraser is listed as a top 10 stock on December 21, 2023 in the market index Timber Industry because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is safely financed and the professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 84 (top 84% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for West Fraser on December 21, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Forest Products |
| Index | Low Waste, Recycling, Timber Industry, TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View West Fraser Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 36 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 37 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 97 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 82 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 84 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 84 (better than 84% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock West Fraser are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for West Fraser. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 82, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 82% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 97 or better than 97% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 36, meaning that the share price of West Fraser is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 37. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 84, West Fraser is better positioned than 84% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 82) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 97), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of West Fraseṛ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for West Fraser very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock West Fraser is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for West Fraser. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 95 (better than 95% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 76, which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic. Obermatt Market Pulse further supports this with a rank of 75, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are generally positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 75% of competitors). But there are few stock holdings by institutional investors. The Professional Investors rank is low at 16, which means that currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 84% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 82 (more positive than 82% compared with investment alternatives), West Fraser has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Not having too many professionals invested in West Fraser may be less of an issue, especially if the stock is from a smaller company where professionals typically invest less. It is natural for professional investors to focus on large and extra-large companies, as they provide more safety. Smaller companies attract fewer professionals in the shareholder community. Overall, the signals from the professionals are still quite favorable for investments in West Fraser. ...read more
Value Strategy: West Fraser Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 36 (worse than 64% compared with alternatives), West Fraser shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for West Fraser. Expected dividend yields are higher than for 59% of comparable companies (a Dividend Yield rank of 59), making the stock attractive. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 88, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 88% of comparable investments. But in respect to sales and profits, the picture is reversed. Price-to-Sales is 49 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning West Fraser's sales levels. The Price-to-Profit ratio (also referred to as price-earnings (P/E) ratio) is also unfavorable for West Fraser with a rank of 15. This means that the stock price, compared with what market professionals expect for future profits, is higher than for 85% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning West Fraser's profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation based on West Fraser's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The company seems confident that it can generate a reasonable return on invested capital, because it pays an above-average dividend while profits are below what you would expect for a company with this stock price. If you agree with this practice and believe that profits will return to higher levels, as the current dividend policy suggests, West Fraser may be an attractive investment. If this is not the case, you may want to be careful with this stock as it is also expensive compared with its expected revenue levels. ...read more
Growth Strategy: West Fraser Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 30 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 18 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 83 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 37 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 37 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), West Fraser shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for West Fraser. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 83, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 18% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 30 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 70% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 18 and Stock Returns with a rank of 37 are also low (below 63% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for West Fraser is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: West Fraser Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 98 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 61 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 96 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 97 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company West Fraser has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of West Fraser is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for West Fraser. Leverage is at 98, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 98% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 61, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 96, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 96% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives), West Fraser has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: West Fraser Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 36 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 37 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 96 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 66 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with investment alternatives), West Fraser (Forest Products, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of West Fraser are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 36 (worse than 64% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 97), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 66, is a buy recommendation based on West Fraser's financial characteristics. As the company West Fraser's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 36) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 97) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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