February 15, 2024
Top 10 Stock UPL Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UPL – Top 10 Stock in Nifty 50 India Index CNX Nifty 50
UPL is listed as a top 10 stock on February 15, 2024 in the market index CNX Nifty 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 20 (20% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for UPL on February 15, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | India |
| Industry | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals |
| Index | Low Emissions, Good Governace Growth Markets, CNX Nifty 50 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UPL Sell
| 360 METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 81 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 31 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 6 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 20 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UPL are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPL. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 81, which means that the share price of UPL is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 81% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 27, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 31, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 69% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 94% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 6. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 20, UPL is worse than 80% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that UPL shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 81. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 27), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 31), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 6) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of UPL is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of UPL. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UPL negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UPL is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for UPL. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 58 (better than 58% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. This is a good sign, were it not for Analyst Opinions Change with a low rank of 7, which means that currently, stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse. In other words, they are getting more critical of a stock investment in UPL. The Professional Investors rank is also low at 1, meaning that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 99% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Even worse, Market Pulse has a low rank of 3, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are critical of this company (more negative news than for 97% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 6 (less encouraging than 94% compared with investment alternatives), UPL has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. There are several negative sentiment signals, with only the Analyst Opinions Rank above average. This could be a stock with a long reputation for being positive but where things are worsening. Most analysts may not see it yet, but some have, and the professionals are already quite pessimistic. Proceed with caution when investing in this stock. ...read more
Value Strategy: UPL Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, UPL shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for UPL. Price-to-Sales is 81 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 81% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for UPL's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 84% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 80. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of UPL are expected to be higher than for 65% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 65). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 81, is a buy recommendation based on UPL's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in UPL based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: UPL Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), UPL shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPL. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 88, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 4% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 49 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 51% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 4 and Stock Returns with a rank of 11 are also low (below 89% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for UPL is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UPL Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 23 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 88 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 18 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 31 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), the company UPL has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of UPL is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for UPL and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 88, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 88% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 23, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 77% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 18, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), UPL has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for UPL are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UPL Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 81 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 35 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with investment alternatives), UPL (Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, India) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UPL are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 81 (better than 81% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 35, is a hold recommendation based on UPL's financial characteristics. As the company UPL's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 81) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 31), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 81% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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