November 30, 2023
Top 10 Stock Triumph Group Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Triumph Group – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index
Triumph Group is listed as a top 10 stock on November 30, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Defense because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is below average and thus a signal for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 39 (39% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Triumph Group on November 30, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense |
| Index | D.J. US Defense |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Triumph Group Hold
| 360 METRICS | November 30, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 72 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 29 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 20 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Triumph Group are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Triumph Group. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 72, which means that the share price of Triumph Group is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 72% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 20. Professional investors are more confident in 80% other stocks. Worryingly, the company has risky financing, with a Safety rank of 29. This means 71% of comparable companies have a safer financing structure than Triumph Group. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 39, Triumph Group is worse than 61% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Even though half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, namely the Value Rank at 72 and the Growth Rank above-average at 51, the picture is still mixed. The professional investor community is skeptical, with the Sentiment Rank below-average at 20. In addition, the company financing structure is on the riskier side (Safety Rank of 29). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. One may be tempted by above-average growth, but that could also change quickly, as past performance is not a good indicator of future performance. Since the financing structure is on the risky side, investors should be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Triumph Group negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Triumph Group is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Triumph Group. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 93, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Triumph Group. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 28, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 72% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 13, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 87% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 20 (less encouraging than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Triumph Group has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Triumph Group Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), Triumph Group shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Triumph Group. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 76, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 76% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Triumph Group's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 60% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 88. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Triumph Group (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on Triumph Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Triumph Group Growth Momentum good
| GROWTH METRICS | November 30, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 66 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 12 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 96 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 23 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 51 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Triumph Group shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Triumph Group. Sales Growth has a rank of 66 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 66% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 12% of competitors with a rank of 96. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 12, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 88% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 23. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Triumph Group Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | November 30, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 90 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 22 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 29 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), the company Triumph Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Triumph Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Triumph Group and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 90, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 90% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 22, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Triumph Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Triumph Group are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Triumph Group Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 30, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 72 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 59 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Triumph Group (Aerospace & Defense, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Triumph Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Triumph Group's financial characteristics. As the company Triumph Group's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 72) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 29) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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