December 21, 2023
Top 10 Stock The AZEK Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: The AZEK – Top 10 Stock in Wood & Timber Industry
The AZEK is listed as a top 10 stock on December 21, 2023 in the market index Timber Industry because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 27 (27% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for The AZEK on December 21, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Building Products |
| Index | Employee Focus US, Timber Industry |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View The AZEK Hold
| 360 METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 11 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 57 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 27 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock The AZEK are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for The AZEK. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 95, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 95% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 57, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 57% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 6, which means that the share price of The AZEK is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 94% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 11, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 89% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 27, The AZEK is worse than 73% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 95), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 57), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for The AZEK positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock The AZEK is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The AZEK. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 81 (better than 81% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 73, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 73% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change is negative with a below 50 rank of 21, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse in recommending the company. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in The AZEK. There are also only so many institutional investors holding company stock with a Professional Investors rank of 47, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 53% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 57 (more positive than 57% compared with investment alternatives), The AZEK has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. The signals are ambivalent. The positive news in the market contradicts the negative change in analyst recommendations. Since the overall analyst recommendations are still above average, the stock may be safer for investing, especially if it is not an extra-large company where Pros tend to be less present. In such a case, the Pro Investor rank is not a problem. ...read more
Value Strategy: The AZEK Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), The AZEK shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for The AZEK. Price-to-Sales is 7 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 93% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning The AZEK's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 23, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of The AZEK. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 7 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on The AZEK's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for The AZEK? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as The AZEK? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. The AZEK may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: The AZEK Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 80 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 78 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 64 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 89 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 95 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2023, The AZEK shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for The AZEK. Sales Growth has a value of 80, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 80% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 78 and for Capital Growth with 64. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 89, which means they have been higher than 89% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, The AZEK exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: The AZEK Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 58 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 14 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 19 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 11 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), the company The AZEK has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of The AZEK is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for The AZEK and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 58 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 58% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 14, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 19, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), The AZEK has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of The AZEK are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: The AZEK Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 19 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 14 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), The AZEK (Building Products, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The AZEK are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 11, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on The AZEK's financial characteristics. As the company The AZEK shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (94% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 95% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 95). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 11 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for The AZEK, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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