February 15, 2024
Top 10 Stock Supernus Pharma Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Supernus Pharma – Top 10 Stock in Moonshot High Tech
Supernus Pharma is listed as a top 10 stock on February 15, 2024 in the market index Moonshot Tech because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. While the company shows high growth, the stock price is high yet professional investor sentiment is low, which may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior, reflected in a low stock price value. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 24 (24% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Supernus Pharma on February 15, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| Index | Moonshot Tech, NASDAQ, D.J. US Pharmaceutical |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Supernus Pharma Sell
| 360 METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 26 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 83 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 12 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 24 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 24 (better than 24% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Supernus Pharma are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 51% of competitors in the same industry. In addition, the consolidated Safety Rank has a safer rank of 83 which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 83% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 26 which means that the share price of Supernus Pharma is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is higher than for 74% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 12, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 88% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 24, Supernus Pharma is worse than 76% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Supernus Pharma shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, the picture is ambiguous. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 51), and the company is safely financed (Safety Rank of 83). However, professional market sentiment is low(Sentiment Rank of 12). The negative market view on Supernus Pharma may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to board the train, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. It is typical for growth companies to have low value ratings, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of Supernus Pharma compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one hundred minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the value rank is above 60. As market sentiment is low, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company’s future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Supernus Pharma negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Supernus Pharma is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 52 (better than 52% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in Supernus Pharma. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 24, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 76% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 15, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 85% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 12 (less encouraging than 88% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: Supernus Pharma Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Supernus Pharma. Price-to-Sales is 42 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 58% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Supernus Pharma's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 48, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Supernus Pharma. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 35 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 26, is a hold recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Supernus Pharma? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Supernus Pharma? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Supernus Pharma may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Supernus Pharma Growth Momentum good
| GROWTH METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 48 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 89 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 32 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 38 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 51 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Supernus Pharma. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 89, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 89% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 48, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 52% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 32 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 38 (62% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Supernus Pharma Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 55 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 40 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 91 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 83 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Supernus Pharma has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Supernus Pharma is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Supernus Pharma. Leverage is at a rank of 55, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 55% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 40, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 60% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Supernus Pharma. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Supernus Pharma Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 26 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 91 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 55 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Supernus Pharma are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 26 (worse than 74% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 83, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Supernus Pharma exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 26), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 83) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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