July 20, 2023
Top 10 Stock Supernus Pharma Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Supernus Pharma – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Pharmaceuticals Index
Supernus Pharma is listed as a top 10 stock on July 20, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Pharmaceutical because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is safely financed and the professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 18 (18% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Supernus Pharma on July 20, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| Index | Moonshot Tech, NASDAQ, D.J. US Pharmaceutical |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Supernus Pharma Sell
| 360 METRICS | July 20, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 73 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 54 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Supernus Pharma are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 54, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 54% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 73 or better than 73% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 16, meaning that the share price of Supernus Pharma is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 23. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 18, Supernus Pharma is worse than 82% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Supernus Pharma shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 54) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 73), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of Supernus Pharmạ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Supernus Pharma positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Supernus Pharma is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Supernus Pharma. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 53 (better than 53% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting even more optimistic about investments in Supernus Pharma. Finally, the Professional Investors rank is 60, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 60% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 54 (more positive than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But there is also a signal for caution. Market Pulse has a rank of 47, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 53% of competitors). This could mean future risks and should make investors careful. Attention to negative news for Supernus Pharma is worthwhile because they may be early warning signals. Without those, all other professional signals are encouraging, especially since analysts are getting more optimistic. ...read more
Value Strategy: Supernus Pharma Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Supernus Pharma. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 50, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 50% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 41 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 59% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Supernus Pharma's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 50 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Supernus Pharma, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Supernus Pharma Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. Sales Growth has a rank of 50 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 50% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 67. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 27, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 73% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 67% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Supernus Pharma Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | July 20, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 55 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 35 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 84 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 73 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), the company Supernus Pharma has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Supernus Pharma is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Supernus Pharma. Leverage is at a rank of 55, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 55% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 84, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Supernus Pharma. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Supernus Pharma Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 20, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 84 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 14 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Supernus Pharma are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 73), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's financial characteristics. As the company Supernus Pharma's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 16) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 73) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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