December 7, 2023
Top 10 Stock Selective Insurance Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Selective Insurance – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index
Selective Insurance is listed as a top 10 stock on December 07, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Insurance because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. While the company shows high growth, the stock price is high yet professional investor sentiment is low, which may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior, reflected in a low stock price value. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 80 (top 80% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for Selective Insurance on December 07, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| Index | Customer Focus US, NASDAQ, D.J. US Insurance, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Selective Insurance Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 86 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 26 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 80 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives) for 2022, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Selective Insurance are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Selective Insurance. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 51% of competitors in the same industry. In addition, the consolidated Safety Rank has a safer rank of 86 which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 86% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 44 which means that the share price of Selective Insurance is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is higher than for 56% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 26, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 74% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 80, Selective Insurance is better positioned than 80% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, the picture is ambiguous. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 51), and the company is safely financed (Safety Rank of 86). However, professional market sentiment is low(Sentiment Rank of 26). The negative market view on Selective Insurance may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to board the train, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. It is typical for growth companies to have low value ratings, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of Selective Insurance compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one hundred minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the value rank is above 60. As market sentiment is low, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company’s future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Selective Insurance only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 26 (better than 26% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Selective Insurance is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Selective Insurance. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 9, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 61, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 61% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 63, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 63% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to Selective Insurance and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 26 (less encouraging than 74% compared with investment alternatives), Selective Insurance has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Selective Insurance Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), Selective Insurance shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Selective Insurance. Price-to-Sales is 37 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 63% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Selective Insurance's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 34, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Selective Insurance. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 46 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 52% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 44, is a hold recommendation based on Selective Insurance's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Selective Insurance? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Selective Insurance? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Selective Insurance may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Selective Insurance Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Selective Insurance shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Selective Insurance. Sales Growth has a value of 52, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 52% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 53 and for Capital Growth with 55. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 55, which means they have been higher than 55% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Selective Insurance exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Selective Insurance Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 77 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 86 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 86 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Selective Insurance has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Selective Insurance is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Selective Insurance. Leverage is at a rank of 77, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 77% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 86, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 4, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives), Selective Insurance has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Selective Insurance. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Selective Insurance Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 86 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 72 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Selective Insurance (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Selective Insurance are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 86, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on Selective Insurance's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Selective Insurance exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 44), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 86) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.