Fact based stock research
Radian Group (NYSE:RDN)
US7502361014
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Radian Group stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Radian Group (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Radian Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Radian Group's financial characteristics. As the company Radian Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (59% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Radian Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Thrifts & Mortgage Finance |
| Index | Employee Focus US, Diversity USA |
| Size class | Large |
25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Radian Group
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 62 |
|
67 |
|
53 |
|
41 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 42 |
|
27 |
|
77 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 43 |
|
49 |
|
61 |
|
44 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
17 |
|
72 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
25 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Radian Group (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Radian Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Radian Group's financial characteristics. As the company Radian Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (59% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Radian Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 62 |
|
67 |
|
53 |
|
41 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 42 |
|
27 |
|
77 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 43 |
|
49 |
|
61 |
|
44 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 51 |
|
49 |
|
83 |
|
49 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Radian Group shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Radian Group. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 61 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 61% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Radian Group's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 52, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 67. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 92% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 8). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Radian Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Radian Group has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Radian Group shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 30 |
|
26 |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 81 |
|
82 |
|
72 |
|
61 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 71 |
|
65 |
|
51 |
|
52 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 42 |
|
83 |
|
70 |
|
67 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 62 |
|
67 |
|
53 |
|
41 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), Radian Group shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Radian Group. Capital Growth has a rank of 71, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 29% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 77 (above 77% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 23, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 77% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 29. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Radian Group, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 8 |
|
26 |
|
87 |
|
23 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 38 |
|
67 |
|
30 |
|
29 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
39 |
|
47 |
|
71 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 67 |
|
25 |
|
89 |
|
77 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 42 |
|
27 |
|
77 |
|
61 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), the company Radian Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Radian Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Radian Group. Leverage is at a rank of 52, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 52% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 5, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 95% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), Radian Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Radian Group. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Radian Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 38 |
|
37 |
|
52 |
|
52 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 56 |
|
31 |
|
9 |
|
5 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 38 |
|
73 |
|
78 |
|
76 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 43 |
|
49 |
|
61 |
|
44 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
65 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
35 |
|
82 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
21 |
|
92 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
17 |
|
72 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Radian Group from April 25, 2024.
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