November 9, 2023
Top 10 Stock Aurizon Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aurizon – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 50
Aurizon is listed as a top 10 stock on November 09, 2023 in the market index ASX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. All consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average. Based on the Obermatt Method, an investment in the company is not advisable today. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 18 (18% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Aurizon on November 09, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aurizon Sell
| 360 METRICS | November 9, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 37 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 15 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 46 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 18 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aurizon are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all four indicators below average for Aurizon. The consolidated Value Rank has a low rank of 37 which means that the share price of Aurizon is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 63% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 49, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 49% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 15, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 85% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank has a low rank of 46, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 54% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 18, Aurizon is worse than 82% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Aurizon shares are on the riskier side for investors. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a risky stock investment proposition, especially since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 46. The negative market view on Aurizon may stem from the high stock price (low value), the low level of growth, or the risky financing structures. That's several problems with no good news anywhere. Based on the current information, we don’t see any compelling arguments to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not confirmed by investor behavior today. While Aurizon may have a bright future, it is reflected in neither the financial indicators nor the market sentiment. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aurizon only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 46 (better than 46% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aurizon is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aurizon. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 56, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aurizon. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 65, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 65% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 44, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 56% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 46 (less encouraging than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Aurizon. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aurizon Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aurizon. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 62 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Aurizon's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 28, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 28% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 75% of alternatives (only 25% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 8% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Aurizon's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aurizon Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aurizon. Sales Growth has a rank of 53, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 53% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 74 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 30, and Stock Returns with 43 are also below-average. Stock returns for Aurizon have recently been below 57% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Aurizon. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aurizon Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | November 9, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 26 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 29 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 20 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 15 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), the company Aurizon has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aurizon is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Aurizon. Liquidity is at 20, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 80% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 26, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 74% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 29 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with alternatives), Aurizon has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Aurizon Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 9, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 37 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 20 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 17 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon (Railroads, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aurizon are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 15), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Aurizon's financial characteristics. As the company Aurizon's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 15), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.