December 7, 2023
Top 10 Stock Progressive Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Progressive – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index
Progressive is listed as a top 10 stock on December 07, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Insurance because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Three consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. Only the Value Rank is below average. The investment rationale may be an investment in future growth, supported by professional market opinion. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 45 (45% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Progressive on December 07, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| Index | Diversity USA, D.J. US Insurance, S&P 500 |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Progressive Hold
| 360 METRICS | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 10 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 77 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 62 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 45 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Progressive are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Progressive. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 93, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 93% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank at 77 means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 77% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 62, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 62% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank is less desirable at 10, meaning that the share price of Progressive is on the higher side compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 90% of alternative stocks in the same industry. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 45, Progressive is worse than 55% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93), a safe financing structure (Safety Rank of 77), and positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 62), it is a solid stock investment where growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale, also reflected by institutional investors. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of Progressive compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The growth rank measures the growth momentum of the company (93% better than peers). The value rank could be the reverse reflection of that (7%). A Value Rank below that level may be assessed as expensive, a rank above that is still good value. Sometimes market sentiment just reflects the past, sometimes the reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Progressive positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Progressive is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Progressive. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 62 (better than 62% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 77, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting even more optimistic about investments in Progressive. Finally, the Professional Investors rank is 73, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 73% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 62 (more positive than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Progressive has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But there is also a signal for caution. Market Pulse has a rank of 45, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 55% of competitors). This could mean future risks and should make investors careful. Attention to negative news for Progressive is worthwhile because they may be early warning signals. Without those, all other professional signals are encouraging, especially since analysts are getting more optimistic. ...read more
Value Strategy: Progressive Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), Progressive shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Progressive. Price-to-Sales is 34 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 66% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Progressive's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 5, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Progressive. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 16 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 76% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on Progressive's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Progressive? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Progressive? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Progressive may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Progressive Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Progressive shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Progressive. Sales Growth has a value of 84, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 84% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 63 and for Capital Growth with 86. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 75, which means they have been higher than 75% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Progressive exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Progressive Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 41 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 73 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 77 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Progressive has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Progressive is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Progressive. Liquidity is at 73, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 8, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 41, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives), Progressive has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Progressive Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 7, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 10 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 73 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 79 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Progressive (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Progressive are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 10 (worse than 90% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 77, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 79, is a strong buy recommendation based on Progressive's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Progressive exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 10), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 93). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 77) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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