November 16, 2023
Top 10 Stock Origin Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Origin – Top 10 Stock in Irish Stock Exchange Quotient General Index ISEQ General
Origin is listed as a top 10 stock on November 16, 2023 in the market index ISEQ because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, the professional market sentiment is positive and it may be a solid investment proposition, especially if a growth recovery is to be expected soon. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 60 (high 60% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Origin on November 16, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Ireland |
| Industry | Agricultural Products |
| Index | ISEQ, Dividends Europe, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Origin Buy
| 360 METRICS | November 16, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 86 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 8 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 41 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 84 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 60 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Origin are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Origin. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 86, which means that the share price of Origin is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 86% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 84, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 84% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 8, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 41, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 59 comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 60, Origin is better positioned than 60% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, but the other half are below market levels. The company enjoys a good value (Value Rank of 86) and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 84), but growth expectations are below-average (Growth Rank of 8) and the financing structure is on the risky side(Safety Rank of 41). This combination is rather dangerous, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. The current low growth level may be temporary, because professionals are actually optimistic (positive sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. Companies with less growth typically have a lower price than fast-growing competitors. Even though professional investor sentiment is strong, we recommend further evaluating whether the future of Origin is as challenging as the stock's low price suggests. Since the professional community is optimistic, the stock might just be going through a more challenging phase now, indicating that timing might be good now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Origin very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 84 (better than 84% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Origin is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for Origin. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 91 (better than 91% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Origin. The Professional Investors rank is 63, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 63% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 53 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 53% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 84 (more positive than 84% compared with investment alternatives), Origin has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean Origin stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: Origin Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Origin shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Origin. Price-to-Sales is 84 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 84% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Origin's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 86% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 66. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Origin are expected to be higher than for 87% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 86, is a buy recommendation based on Origin's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Origin based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Origin Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 8 (better than 8% compared with alternatives), Origin shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Origin. While Sales Growth ranks at 73, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 73% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 27, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 73% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 1. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 16 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 84% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Origin Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | November 16, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 77 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 38 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 24 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 41 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), the company Origin has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Origin and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 77 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 77% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 38, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 24, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Origin has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Origin are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Origin Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 16, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 86 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 8 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 24 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 36 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 36 (worse than 64% compared with investment alternatives), Origin (Agricultural Products, Ireland) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 86 (better than 86% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 8), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 41), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation based on Origin's financial characteristics. As the company Origin's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 86) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 8) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 41), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 86% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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