December 21, 2023
Top 10 Stock Origin Energy Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Origin Energy – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 100
Origin Energy is listed as a top 10 stock on December 21, 2023 in the market index ASX 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is low. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 87 (top 87% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for Origin Energy on December 21, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Origin Energy Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 87 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 43 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 54 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 87 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Origin Energy are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Origin Energy. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 69, which means that the share price of Origin Energy is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 69% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 87, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. In addition, professional market sentiment is above average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 54. But the company’s financing is risky with a Safety rank of 43. This means 57% of comparable companies have a safer financing structure than Origin Energy. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 87, Origin Energy is better positioned than 87% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 69), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87), and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 54), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the company financing structure is on the riskier side (Safety Rank of 43), but that would also mean better returns for shareholders if things work out well. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been growing above average and are still a good value, it may indicate that this will not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Origin Energy is as difficult as the low price of the stock, despite good growth and positive professional investor sentiment, suggests. Since the professional community is optimistic, you might have less to worry about, and the stock is just not sufficiently visible right now, which may indicate good timing. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Origin Energy positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Origin Energy is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Origin Energy. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 61 (better than 61% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting even more optimistic about investments in Origin Energy. Finally, the Professional Investors rank is 63, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 63% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 54 (more positive than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But there is also a signal for caution. Market Pulse has a rank of 33, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 67% of competitors). This could mean future risks and should make investors careful. Attention to negative news for Origin Energy is worthwhile because they may be early warning signals. Without those, all other professional signals are encouraging, especially since analysts are getting more optimistic. ...read more
Value Strategy: Origin Energy Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 65, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 65% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 68% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 86 (dividends are expected to be higher than 86% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 64% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Origin Energy to 36. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Origin Energy Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 39 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 76 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 79 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 57 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 87 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Origin Energy shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Origin Energy. Profit Growth has a rank of 76 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 76% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 79, and Stock Returns has a rank of 57 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 57% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 39 (61% of its competitors are better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Origin Energy Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 70 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 43 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 21 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 43 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Origin Energy and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 70 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 70% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 43, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 21, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 79% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Origin Energy are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Origin Energy Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 21, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 87 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 90 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 69 (better than 69% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 90, is a strong buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Origin Energy's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 69) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 87), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 43) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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