Fact based stock research
National Vision (NasdaqGS:EYE)

US63845R1077

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

National Vision stock research in summary

nationalvision.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), National Vision (Specialty Stores, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Vision are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 12 (worse than 88% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 21), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on National Vision's financial characteristics. As the company National Vision's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 12), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 21), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 43), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	12
Growth Rank	21
Safety Rank	43
Combined Rank	1

Country	USA
Industry	Specialty Stores
Index	SDG 3, SDG 5, SDG 8, NASDAQ
Size class	Large

18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: National Vision

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	20	11	12	12
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	41	7	21
SAFETY
SAFETY	14	56	57	43
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	75	40	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	45	11	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 18-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better National Vision is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	20	11	12	12
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	41	7	21
SAFETY
SAFETY	14	56	57	43
COMBINED
COMBINED	35	25	6	1

Last update of combined financial performance: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of National Vision the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with alternatives), National Vision shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for National Vision. Price-to-Sales is 36 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning National Vision's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 45, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of National Vision. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation based on National Vision's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for National Vision? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as National Vision? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. National Vision may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	28	26	37	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	50	5	6	3
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	33	41	56	45
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	20	11	12	12

Last update of Value Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of National Vision; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), National Vision shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for National Vision. Capital Growth has a rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 26% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 57 (above 57% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 26. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for National Vision, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	67	73	1	6
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	41	52	26
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	58	7	61
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	75	17	13	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	86	41	7	21

Last update of Growth Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of National Vision.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company National Vision has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of National Vision is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Vision. Leverage is at a rank of 59, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 59% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 55, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), National Vision has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Vision. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with National Vision and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	35	59	55	59
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	25	47	41	16
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	51	38	46	55
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	14	56	57	43

Last update of Safety Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of National Vision and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	54	40	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	63	40	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	60	47	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	75	40	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for National Vision.
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