December 28, 2023
Top 10 Stock National Fuel Gas Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Fuel Gas – Top 10 Stock in Oil & Gas Mining and Production
National Fuel Gas is listed as a top 10 stock on December 28, 2023 in the market index Oil & Gas because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment from a financial fact perspective where only investor sentiment is a reason for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 67 (high 67% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for National Fuel Gas on December 28, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Gas Utilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, Oil & Gas, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Fuel Gas Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 79 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 16 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 67 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Fuel Gas are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 70, which means that the share price of National Fuel Gas is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 70% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety Rank of 79. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of only 16. Professional investors are more confident in 84% other stocks. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 67, National Fuel Gas is better positioned than 67% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 70), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51), and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 79), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the professional market sentiment is on the riskier side (Sentiment Rank of 16), but that could also mean an overreaction to negative news in the past. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been enjoying above average growth and are still a good value, this may not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of National Fuel Gas is as challenging as the low price of the stock despite good growth and safe financing practices suggest. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you may want to reflect these negative opinions in light of what you find reasonable to expect for the future. If you believe this pessimistic view is transitory, you have a solid investment case based on current financial factors. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Fuel Gas negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Fuel Gas is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for National Fuel Gas. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 11, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 43, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 57% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for National Fuel Gas is Market Pulse, with a rank of 50, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 50% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 16 (less encouraging than 84% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Fuel Gas Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for National Fuel Gas. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 55, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning National Fuel Gas's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 93% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 41 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 41% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 60% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for National Fuel Gas to 40. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 70, is a buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: National Fuel Gas Growth Momentum good
| GROWTH METRICS | December 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 86 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 56 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 45 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 11 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 51 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for National Fuel Gas. Sales Growth has a rank of 86, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 86% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 56 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 45, and Stock Returns with 11 are also below-average. Stock returns for National Fuel Gas have recently been below 89% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for National Fuel Gas. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Fuel Gas Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 86 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 23 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 88 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 79 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company National Fuel Gas has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of National Fuel Gas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. Leverage is at a rank of 86, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 88, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 23, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Fuel Gas. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: National Fuel Gas Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 28, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 92 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas (Gas Utilities, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of National Fuel Gas are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 79), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 92, is a strong buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's financial characteristics. As the company National Fuel Gas's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 70), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 79), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of National Fuel Gas. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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