January 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock National Express Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Express – Top 10 Stock in FTSE 350 Index
National Express is listed as a top 10 stock on January 25, 2024 in the market index FTSE 350 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 48 (48% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for National Express on January 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Trucking |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Energy Efficient, SDG 11, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 3, SDG 8, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Express Hold
| 360 METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 98 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 18 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 49 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 27 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 48 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Express are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for National Express. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 98, which means that the share price of National Express is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 98% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 18, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 49, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 51% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 73% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 27. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 48, National Express is worse than 52% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 98. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 18), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 49), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 27) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of National Express is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of National Express. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Express only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Express is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for National Express. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 91 (better than 91% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in National Express. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 7, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 93% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 22, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 78% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 27 (less encouraging than 73% compared with investment alternatives), National Express has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Express Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2024, National Express shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for National Express. Price-to-Sales is 95 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for National Express's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 69% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 94. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of National Express are expected to be higher than for 86% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 86). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 98, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in National Express based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: National Express Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), National Express shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for National Express. Sales Growth has a rank of 64 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 64% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 18% of competitors with a rank of 60. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 18, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 82% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 10. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Express Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 62 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 9 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 69 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 49 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), the company National Express has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of National Express is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Express. Leverage is at a rank of 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 69, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 69% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 9, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), National Express has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Express. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: National Express Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 98 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 18 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 69 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 62 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with investment alternatives), National Express (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Express are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 98 (better than 98% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 18), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 62, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's financial characteristics. As the company National Express's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 98) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 18) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 49), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 98% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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