June 15, 2023
Top 10 Stock National Express Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Express – Top 10 Stock in FTSE 350 Index
National Express is listed as a top 10 stock on June 15, 2023 in the market index FTSE 350 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 32 (32% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for National Express on June 15, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Trucking |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Energy Efficient, SDG 11, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 3, SDG 8, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Express Hold
| 360 METRICS | June 15, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 94 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 51 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 18 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 32 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Express are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for National Express. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 94, which means that the share price of National Express is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 94% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 51. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 18. Professional investors are more confident in 82% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 13, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 87 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a 360° View of 32, National Express is worse than 68% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 94), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 51). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 18), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 13). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Express negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Express is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for National Express. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 74 (better than 74% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. This is a good sign, were it not for Analyst Opinions Change with a low rank of 44, which means that currently, stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse. In other words, they are getting more critical of a stock investment in National Express. The Professional Investors rank is also low at 14, meaning that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 86% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Even worse, Market Pulse has a low rank of 4, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are critical of this company (more negative news than for 96% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 18 (less encouraging than 82% compared with investment alternatives), National Express has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. There are several negative sentiment signals, with only the Analyst Opinions Rank above average. This could be a stock with a long reputation for being positive but where things are worsening. Most analysts may not see it yet, but some have, and the professionals are already quite pessimistic. Proceed with caution when investing in this stock. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Express Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2023, National Express shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for National Express. Price-to-Sales is 87 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for National Express's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 65% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 84. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of National Express are expected to be higher than for 80% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 80). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 94, is a strong buy recommendation based on National Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in National Express based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: National Express Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 13 (better than 13% compared with alternatives), National Express shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for National Express. While Sales Growth ranks at 56, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 56% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 27, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 73% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 35. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 7 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 93% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a SELL recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Express Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | June 15, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 64 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 9 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 70 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 51 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), the company National Express has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of National Express is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Express. Leverage is at a rank of 64, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 70, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 9, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), National Express has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Express. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: National Express Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | June 15, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 94 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 70 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 52 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), National Express (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Express are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Obermatt Value Rank of 94 (better than 94% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 51, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 13). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: An Obermatt Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's financial characteristics. As the company National Express's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 94) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 13) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 51), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 94% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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