October 26, 2023
Top 10 Stock Lundin Gold Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Lundin Gold – Top 10 Stock in Gold Mining and Production
Lundin Gold is listed as a top 10 stock on October 26, 2023 in the market index Gold because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 52 (high 52% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Lundin Gold on October 26, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Gold, Silver, TSX Composite |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Lundin Gold Buy
| 360 METRICS | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 8 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 78 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 52 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Lundin Gold are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Lundin Gold. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 83, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 83% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 78, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 78% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 32, which means that the share price of Lundin Gold is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 68% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 8, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 92% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 52, Lundin Gold is better positioned than 52% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 83), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 78), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Lundin Gold very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Lundin Gold is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for Lundin Gold. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 62 (better than 62% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Lundin Gold. The Professional Investors rank is 82, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 82% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 53 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 53% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 78 (more positive than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Lundin Gold has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean Lundin Gold stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: Lundin Gold Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Lundin Gold shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Lundin Gold. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 52 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Lundin Gold's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 5, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 5% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 80% of alternatives (only 20% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 20% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Lundin Gold's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Lundin Gold Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Lundin Gold shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Lundin Gold. Profit Growth has a rank of 83 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 83% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 57, and Stock Returns has a rank of 99 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 99% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 29 (71% of its competitors are better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 83, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Lundin Gold Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 14 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 37 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 15 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 8 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 8 (better than 8% compared with alternatives), the company Lundin Gold has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Lundin Gold is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Lundin Gold. Liquidity is at 15, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 85% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 14, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 37 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), Lundin Gold has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Lundin Gold Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 15 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 23 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Lundin Gold (Gold Production, Canada) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Lundin Gold are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 8, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 83). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Lundin Gold's financial characteristics. As the company Lundin Gold shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 32 (68% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 83% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 83). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 8 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Lundin Gold, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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