January 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock Howden Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Howden – Top 10 Stock in FTSE 350 Index
Howden is listed as a top 10 stock on January 25, 2024 in the market index FTSE 350 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is safely financed and the professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 73 (high 73% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Howden on January 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Trading & Distribution |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 15, SDG 8, Water Tech |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Howden Buy
| 360 METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 51 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 98 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 73 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Howden are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for Howden. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 98, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 98% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 51 or better than 51% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 43, meaning that the share price of Howden is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 31. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 73, Howden is better positioned than 73% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 98) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 51), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of Howdeṇ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Howden very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Howden is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for Howden. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 77 (better than 77% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Howden. The Professional Investors rank is 90, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 90% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 80 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 80% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 98 (more positive than 98% compared with investment alternatives), Howden has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean Howden stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: Howden Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Howden shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Howden. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Howden's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 26, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 26% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 75% of alternatives (only 25% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 40% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Howden's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Howden Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), Howden shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Howden. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 46, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 17, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 19. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 81% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 78, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 78% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Howden, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Howden Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 37 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 32 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 77 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 51 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), the company Howden has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Howden is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Howden. Liquidity is at 77, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 77% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 32, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 37, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 63% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Howden has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Howden Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 77 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 27 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with investment alternatives), Howden (Trading & Distribution, United Kingdom) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Howden are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 31) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 51), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Howden's financial characteristics. As the company Howden's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 31), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 51) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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