December 14, 2023
Top 10 Stock Hilltop Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Hilltop – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Regional Banks Index
Hilltop is listed as a top 10 stock on December 14, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Banks because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 24 (24% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Hilltop on December 14, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | D.J. US Banks |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Hilltop Sell
| 360 METRICS | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 48 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 1 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 24 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 24 (better than 24% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Hilltop are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Hilltop. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 98, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 98% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 6, which means that the share price of Hilltop is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 48, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 1, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 99% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 24, Hilltop is worse than 76% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Hilltop shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 1. The negative market view on Hilltop may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Hilltop negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Hilltop is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Hilltop. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 20 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 19, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 81% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 30, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 70% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Hilltop, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1 (less encouraging than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Hilltop Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Hilltop. Price-to-Sales is 1 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 99% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Hilltop's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 45, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Hilltop. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 88% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Hilltop? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Hilltop? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Hilltop may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Hilltop Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 18 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 54 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 15 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 93 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 48 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Hilltop. Profit Growth has a rank of 54, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 54% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 93 (above 93% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 15. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Hilltop. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Hilltop Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 91 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 78 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 100 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 98 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Hilltop has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Hilltop is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Hilltop. Leverage is at 91, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 91% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 78, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 78% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Hilltop has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Hilltop Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 48 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 55 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop (Regional Banks, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hilltop are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 48) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Hilltop's financial characteristics. As the company Hilltop's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 6) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 48), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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