October 26, 2023
Top 10 Stock Blue Bird Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Blue Bird – Top 10 Stock in Nasdaq Composite Index
Blue Bird is listed as a top 10 stock on October 26, 2023 in the market index NASDAQ because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 37 (37% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Blue Bird on October 26, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Blue Bird Hold
| 360 METRICS | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 48 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 36 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 37 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Blue Bird are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Blue Bird. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 100, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 100% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 48 means that the share price of Blue Bird is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 52% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 1, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 99% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 36, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 64% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 37, Blue Bird is worse than 63% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 36), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 1). The negative market view on Blue Bird may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of Blue Bird compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Blue Bird only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 36 (better than 36% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Blue Bird is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Blue Bird. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 82 (better than 82% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in Blue Bird. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 15, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 85% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 37, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 63% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 36 (less encouraging than 64% compared with investment alternatives), Blue Bird has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: Blue Bird Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Blue Bird shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Blue Bird. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 62, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Blue Bird's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 100% of alternatives (0% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 42, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Blue Bird's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Blue Bird may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). ...read more
Growth Strategy: Blue Bird Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 63 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 98 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 100 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 100 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Blue Bird shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Blue Bird. Sales Growth has a value of 63, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 63% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 98 and for Capital Growth with 100. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 100, which means they have been higher than 100% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Blue Bird exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Blue Bird Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 18 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), the company Blue Bird has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Blue Bird is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Blue Bird. Liquidity is at 18, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 4 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Blue Bird has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Blue Bird Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 26, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 48 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 46 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Blue Bird (Heavy Machinery, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Blue Bird are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 48 (worse than 52% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Blue Bird's financial characteristics. As the company Blue Bird shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 48 (52% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Blue Bird, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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