Fact based stock research
Harmony (JSE:HAR)
ZAE000015228
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Harmony stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Harmony (Gold Production, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Harmony are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 80, is a strong buy recommendation based on Harmony's financial characteristics. As the company Harmony shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 93% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 93). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Harmony, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | South Africa |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Copper, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Water Efficiency, JSE All Shares |
| Size class | Large |
This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO, Top 10 Stock.
25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Harmony
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 74 |
|
69 |
|
60 |
|
40 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
|
15 |
|
97 |
|
93 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 77 |
|
71 |
|
59 |
|
49 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
28 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
15 |
|
74 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Harmony (Gold Production, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Harmony are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 80, is a strong buy recommendation based on Harmony's financial characteristics. As the company Harmony shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 93% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 93). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Harmony, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 74 |
|
69 |
|
60 |
|
40 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
|
15 |
|
97 |
|
93 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 77 |
|
71 |
|
59 |
|
49 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 88 |
|
51 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Harmony shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Harmony. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 64, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 64% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Harmony's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 49 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Harmony's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 46 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Harmony's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then Harmony is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 79 |
|
79 |
|
63 |
|
49 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 87 |
|
72 |
|
78 |
|
64 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 74 |
|
90 |
|
60 |
|
46 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 52 |
|
20 |
|
49 |
|
48 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 74 |
|
69 |
|
60 |
|
40 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Harmony shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Harmony. Sales Growth has a value of 60, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 60% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 82 and for Capital Growth with 58. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 97, which means they have been higher than 97% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Harmony exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 24 |
|
48 |
|
45 |
|
60 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 6 |
|
6 |
|
93 |
|
82 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
50 |
|
60 |
|
58 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 12 |
|
19 |
|
97 |
|
97 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 11 |
|
15 |
|
97 |
|
93 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), the company Harmony has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Harmony is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Harmony. Leverage is at a rank of 64, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 60, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Harmony has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Harmony. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Harmony and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 30 |
|
70 |
|
62 |
|
64 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 60 |
|
43 |
|
19 |
|
25 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 68 |
|
76 |
|
96 |
|
60 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 77 |
|
71 |
|
59 |
|
49 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
9 |
|
7 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
93 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
28 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Harmony from April 25, 2024.
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