December 14, 2023
Top 10 Stock Commerce Bancshares Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Commerce Bancshares – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Regional Banks Index
Commerce Bancshares is listed as a top 10 stock on December 14, 2023 in the market index D.J. US Banks because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company enjoys a positive professional investor sentiment, but all financial facts speak against a stock purchase. This is probably an investment into the future. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 14 (14% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Commerce Bancshares on December 14, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | Employee Focus US, NASDAQ, D.J. US Banks, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Commerce Bancshares Sell
| 360 METRICS | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 14 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 45 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 62 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 14 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Commerce Bancshares are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Commerce Bancshares. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 62, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 62% of alternative investment opportunities. But all other ranks are below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a rank of 1, which means that the share price of Commerce Bancshares is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 14, meaning that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 14% of competitors in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 45 which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 55% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 14, Commerce Bancshares is worse than 86% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Commerce Bancshares shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 62) is above-average, and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below peers, the stock investing proposition case is rather weak. The stock price is expensive for a company of this size in this industry, visible in the below-average Value Rank. Growth is below the competition based on the Growth Rank, and the company has more debt than other companies, according to the Safety Rank. So the question becomes: How important is the Sentiment Rank when all others are below average? When it comes to growth, the low rating might be justified if growth is expected in the future and not yet reflected in current performance. This is often the case for companies with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In the early phases, these companies are expensive compared with their size and may have a lot of debt on their books, as is the case here, as seen in the low Value and Safety Ranks. Future growth may be the strongest investment rationale in this case, which is only reflected by institutional investors' opinions. You pay more than the market average for this stock and invest in a rather debt-loaded enterprise, but it may be worth it if the future of Commerce Bancshareṣ is bright. A small investment might be justified, but proceed with caution. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Commerce Bancshares positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Commerce Bancshares is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Commerce Bancshares. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 35 (worse than 65% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Commerce Bancshares. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 82, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 82% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 47, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 53% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 62 (more positive than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Commerce Bancshares has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Commerce Bancshares. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Commerce Bancshares. Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Commerce Bancshares's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Commerce Bancshares. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 88% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Commerce Bancshares's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Commerce Bancshares? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Commerce Bancshares? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Commerce Bancshares may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Commerce Bancshares Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Commerce Bancshares. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 60, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 60% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 38, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 62% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 5 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 23 (77% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Commerce Bancshares Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 30 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 100 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 45 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), the company Commerce Bancshares has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Commerce Bancshares is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Commerce Bancshares. Liquidity is at 100, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 4, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 30, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 70% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Commerce Bancshares Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 14 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 1 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Commerce Bancshares (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Commerce Bancshares are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 14), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 45), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Commerce Bancshares's financial characteristics. As the company Commerce Bancshares's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 14), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 45), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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