Fact based stock research
Carvana (NYSE:CVNA)
US1468691027
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Carvana stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), Carvana (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carvana are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 7, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 69). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Carvana's financial characteristics. As the company Carvana shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 34 (66% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 69% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 69). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 7 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Carvana, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Automotive Retail |
| Index | |
| Size class | XX-Large |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Carvana
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 3 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
34 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
|
23 |
|
100 |
|
69 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 7 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), Carvana (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carvana are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 7, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 69). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Carvana's financial characteristics. As the company Carvana shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 34 (66% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 69% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 69). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 7 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Carvana, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 3 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
34 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
|
23 |
|
100 |
|
69 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 7 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 25 |
|
1 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), Carvana shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Carvana. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 100% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 26 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Carvana's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Carvana's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Carvana, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 28 |
|
19 |
|
24 |
|
26 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 2 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
12 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
6 |
|
1 |
|
100 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 3 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
34 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), Carvana shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Carvana. Sales Growth has a rank of 93 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 93% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 100. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 61% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 100% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 98 |
|
90 |
|
78 |
|
93 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
25 |
|
96 |
|
1 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
1 |
|
80 |
|
39 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 76 |
|
15 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 93 |
|
23 |
|
100 |
|
69 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), the company Carvana has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Carvana is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Carvana. Liquidity is at 26, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 6, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 94% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 44 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 56% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with alternatives), Carvana has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Carvana because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 35 |
|
21 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 59 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 12 |
|
20 |
|
20 |
|
26 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 7 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
48 |
|
3 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
53 |
|
54 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
35 |
|
15 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
6 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Carvana from April 18, 2024.
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