January 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock Carlsberg Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Carlsberg – Top 10 Stock in OMX Copenhagen 20
Carlsberg is listed as a top 10 stock on January 25, 2024 in the market index OMX C20 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company enjoys a positive professional investor sentiment, but all financial facts speak against a stock purchase. This is probably an investment into the future. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 30 (30% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Carlsberg on January 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Denmark |
| Industry | Brewers |
| Index | OMX C20, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Carlsberg Hold
| 360 METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 22 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 33 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 35 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 76 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 30 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Carlsberg are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 76, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 76% of alternative investment opportunities. But all other ranks are below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a rank of 22, which means that the share price of Carlsberg is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 33, meaning that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 33% of competitors in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 35 which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 65% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 30, Carlsberg is worse than 70% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 76) is above-average, and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below peers, the stock investing proposition case is rather weak. The stock price is expensive for a company of this size in this industry, visible in the below-average Value Rank. Growth is below the competition based on the Growth Rank, and the company has more debt than other companies, according to the Safety Rank. So the question becomes: How important is the Sentiment Rank when all others are below average? When it comes to growth, the low rating might be justified if growth is expected in the future and not yet reflected in current performance. This is often the case for companies with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In the early phases, these companies are expensive compared with their size and may have a lot of debt on their books, as is the case here, as seen in the low Value and Safety Ranks. Future growth may be the strongest investment rationale in this case, which is only reflected by institutional investors' opinions. You pay more than the market average for this stock and invest in a rather debt-loaded enterprise, but it may be worth it if the future of Carlsberg̣ is bright. A small investment might be justified, but proceed with caution. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Carlsberg very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Carlsberg is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Carlsberg. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 65 (better than 65% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 87, which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic. Obermatt Market Pulse further supports this with a rank of 56, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are generally positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 56% of competitors). But there are few stock holdings by institutional investors. The Professional Investors rank is low at 32, which means that currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 68% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 76 (more positive than 76% compared with investment alternatives), Carlsberg has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Not having too many professionals invested in Carlsberg may be less of an issue, especially if the stock is from a smaller company where professionals typically invest less. It is natural for professional investors to focus on large and extra-large companies, as they provide more safety. Smaller companies attract fewer professionals in the shareholder community. Overall, the signals from the professionals are still quite favorable for investments in Carlsberg. ...read more
Value Strategy: Carlsberg Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 62% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 17 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 83% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Carlsberg's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 19 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 81% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 12 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 88% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on Carlsberg's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Carlsberg? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Carlsberg only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Carlsberg Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 71, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 14% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 46 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 14 and Stock Returns with a rank of 47 are also low (below 53% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Carlsberg is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Carlsberg Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 30 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 7 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 83 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 35 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), the company Carlsberg has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Carlsberg is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Carlsberg. Liquidity is at 83, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 83% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 7, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 93% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 30, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 70% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Carlsberg Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 25, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 22 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 33 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 83 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 18 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Carlsberg (Brewers, Denmark) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carlsberg are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 22 (worse than 78% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Carlsberg's financial characteristics. As the company Carlsberg's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 22), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.