January 11, 2024
Top 10 Stock Canfor Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Canfor – Top 10 Stock in SDG 15: Life on Land
Canfor is listed as a top 10 stock on January 11, 2024 in the market index SDG 15 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 60 (high 60% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Canfor on January 11, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Forest Products |
| Index | Renewables Users, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 15, SDG 5, SDG 8, Timber Industry, TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Canfor Buy
| 360 METRICS | January 11, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 45 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 36 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 34 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 60 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Canfor are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Canfor. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 100, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 100% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 45, which means that the share price of Canfor is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 36, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 34, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 66% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 60, Canfor is better positioned than 60% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 34. The negative market view on Canfor may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Canfor only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Canfor is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Canfor. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 97 (better than 97% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in Canfor. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 25, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 75% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 4, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 96% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 34 (less encouraging than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Canfor has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: Canfor Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), Canfor shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Canfor. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 75, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 75% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Canfor's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 97% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 97. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Canfor (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Canfor's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Canfor Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 36 (better than 36% compared with alternatives), Canfor shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Canfor. Sales Growth has a rank of 82 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 82% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 12% of competitors with a rank of 50. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 12, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 88% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 21. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Canfor Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | January 11, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 90 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 89 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 88 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Canfor has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Canfor is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Canfor. Leverage is at 90, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 90% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 89, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 89% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 88, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives), Canfor has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Canfor Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 11, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 45 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 36 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 75 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Canfor (Forest Products, Canada) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Canfor are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 36) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 100), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 75, is a strong buy recommendation based on Canfor's financial characteristics. As the company Canfor's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 36), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 100) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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