September 14, 2023
Top 10 Stock Aryzta Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aryzta – Top 10 Stock in Swiss Performance Index SPI
Aryzta is listed as a top 10 stock on September 14, 2023 in the market index SPI because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 53 (high 53% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Aryzta on September 14, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Switzerland |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats |
| Index | ISEQ, SDG 12, Sound Pay Europe, SPI |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aryzta Buy
| 360 METRICS | September 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 17 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 61 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 53 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 53 (better than 53% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aryzta are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aryzta. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 100, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 100% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 61, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 61% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 25, which means that the share price of Aryzta is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 75% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 17, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 83% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 53, Aryzta is better positioned than 53% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 100), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 61), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aryzta positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aryzta is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aryzta. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aryzta. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 81, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 81% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 36, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 64% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 61 (more positive than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Aryzta has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Aryzta. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aryzta Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Aryzta shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Aryzta. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 62, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Aryzta's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 75% of alternatives (25% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 5, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Aryzta's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Aryzta may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aryzta Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | September 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 54 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 96 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 72 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 82 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Aryzta shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Aryzta. Sales Growth has a value of 54, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 54% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 96 and for Capital Growth with 72. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 82, which means they have been higher than 82% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Aryzta exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aryzta Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | September 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 48 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 16 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 22 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 17 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), the company Aryzta has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aryzta is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Aryzta. Liquidity is at 22, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 48, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 52% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 16 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Aryzta has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Aryzta Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 14, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 49 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Aryzta (Packaged Foods & Meats, Switzerland) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aryzta are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 17, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Aryzta's financial characteristics. As the company Aryzta shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (75% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 17 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Aryzta, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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