Fact based stock research
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI)
US03762U1051
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (REITs: Mortgage, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 77 (better than 77% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial characteristics. As the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 77) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 77% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | REITs: Mortgage |
| Index | |
| Size class | Medium |
21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
77 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
19 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (REITs: Mortgage, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 77 (better than 77% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial characteristics. As the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 77) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 77% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
77 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 81 |
|
25 |
|
25 |
|
25 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 72 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 72% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 80, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 94. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 59% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 41). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 77, is a buy recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 55 |
|
52 |
|
37 |
|
41 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 63 |
|
84 |
|
70 |
|
72 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 78 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
80 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 100 |
|
89 |
|
92 |
|
94 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
77 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Profit Growth has a rank of 65, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 65% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 78 (above 78% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 15, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 85% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 11. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
|
16 |
|
6 |
|
15 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 50 |
|
8 |
|
26 |
|
65 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
13 |
|
75 |
|
11 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
61 |
|
59 |
|
78 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
37 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Liquidity is at 12, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 22, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 78% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 35 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
18 |
|
20 |
|
22 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 82 |
|
35 |
|
35 |
|
35 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 9 |
|
13 |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
16 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
23 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance from March 21, 2024.
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