Fact based stock research
Aozora Bank (TSE:8304)
JP3711200000
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Aozora Bank stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Aozora Bank (Diversified Banks, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aozora Bank are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 6), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 28), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Aozora Bank's financial characteristics. As the company Aozora Bank's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 6), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 28), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Japan |
| Industry | Diversified Banks |
| Index | Nikkei 225 |
| Size class | XX-Large |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Aozora Bank
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
67 |
|
41 |
|
6 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
8 |
|
24 |
|
28 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
7 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Aozora Bank (Diversified Banks, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aozora Bank are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 6), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 28), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Aozora Bank's financial characteristics. As the company Aozora Bank's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 6), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 28), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
67 |
|
41 |
|
6 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
8 |
|
24 |
|
28 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 80 |
|
32 |
|
16 |
|
6 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where three out of four indicators are above average for Aozora Bank. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 65 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 65% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Aozora Bank's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 56. Finally, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Aozora Bank are expected to be higher than for 51% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 51). The only low rank is for expected profits with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 19, indicating that the market expects the company's profit to be low despite a high dividend. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Aozora Bank's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The low Profit Rank could result from a one-off charge, for instance, for an accident, a legal settlement, or a restructuring project. If the company keeps its dividends high, the low expected profit may be transitory. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Capital, and Dividends are reliable indicators for good stock price value, a low stock price. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 50 |
|
49 |
|
46 |
|
65 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 56 |
|
57 |
|
17 |
|
19 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 78 |
|
52 |
|
37 |
|
56 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 68 |
|
65 |
|
70 |
|
51 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 69 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
46 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Aozora Bank. While Sales Growth ranks at 77, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 77% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 99% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 5. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 15 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 85% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 15 |
|
50 |
|
17 |
|
77 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 55 |
|
31 |
|
100 |
|
1 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
83 |
|
11 |
|
5 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 68 |
|
81 |
|
65 |
|
15 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 39 |
|
67 |
|
41 |
|
6 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 28 (better than 28% compared with alternatives), the company Aozora Bank has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aozora Bank is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Aozora Bank.Leverage is at 77, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 77% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 54, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 54% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Aozora Bank more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 64 |
|
37 |
|
62 |
|
77 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 36 |
|
50 |
|
39 |
|
54 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 89 |
|
1 |
|
15 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
|
8 |
|
24 |
|
28 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
28 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
23 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
33 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
20 |
|
7 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Aozora Bank from April 18, 2024.
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