September 21, 2023
Top 10 Stock Alfen Sell Recommendation

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For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).

360° View: Obermatt 360° View Alfen Sell

360 METRICS	September 21, 2023
VALUE
VALUE	16
GROWTH
GROWTH	11
SAFETY
SAFETY	91
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	10
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	16

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Alfen are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Alfen. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 91, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 91% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 16, which means that the share price of Alfen is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 11, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 10, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 90% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 16, Alfen is worse than 84% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Alfen shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 10. The negative market view on Alfen may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more

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Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Alfen negative

SENTIMENT METRICS	September 21, 2023
ANALYST OPINION
ANALYST OPINION	28
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	10
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	20
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	41
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	10

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Alfen is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Alfen. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 10 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 41, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 59% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 20, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Alfen, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 10 (less encouraging than 90% compared with investment alternatives), Alfen has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more

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Value Strategy: Alfen Stock Price Value low

VALUE METRICS	September 21, 2023
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	41
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	25
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	16

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), Alfen shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Alfen. Price-to-Sales is 41 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 59% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Alfen's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 8, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Alfen. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 25 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Alfen's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Alfen? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Alfen? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Alfen may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more

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Growth Strategy: Alfen Growth Momentum negative

GROWTH METRICS	September 21, 2023
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	79
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	12
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	14
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	9
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	11

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), Alfen shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Alfen. While Sales Growth ranks at 79, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 79% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 12, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 88% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 14. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 9 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 91% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more

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Safety Strategy: Alfen Debt Financing Safety very solid

SAFETY METRICS	September 21, 2023
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	78
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	30
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	93
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	91

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Alfen has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Alfen is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Alfen. Leverage is at a rank of 78, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 78% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 93, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 93% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 30, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 70% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives), Alfen has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Alfen. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more

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Combined financial peformance: Alfen Lowest Financial Performance

COMBINED PERFORMANCE	September 21, 2023
VALUE
VALUE	16
GROWTH
GROWTH	11
SAFETY
SAFETY	93
COMBINED
COMBINED	23

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Alfen (Heavy Electrical Equipment, Netherlands) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alfen are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 91), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Alfen's financial characteristics. As the company Alfen's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 16) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 91) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more

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