Fact based stock research
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP)
US00751Y1064
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Advance Auto Parts stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Advance Auto Parts (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Advance Auto Parts are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 67), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 66), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 78, is a strong buy recommendation based on Advance Auto Parts's financial characteristics. As the company Advance Auto Parts's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 67), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 66), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Advance Auto Parts. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Automotive Retail |
| Index | Dividends USA, S&P US Luxury, S&P 500 |
| Size class | X-Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Advance Auto Parts
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 38 |
|
49 |
|
84 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 26 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
67 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 38 |
|
70 |
|
84 |
|
66 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
87 |
|
38 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
61 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Advance Auto Parts (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Advance Auto Parts are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 67), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 66), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 78, is a strong buy recommendation based on Advance Auto Parts's financial characteristics. As the company Advance Auto Parts's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 67), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 66), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Advance Auto Parts. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 38 |
|
49 |
|
84 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 26 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
67 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 38 |
|
70 |
|
84 |
|
66 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 21 |
|
51 |
|
83 |
|
78 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Advance Auto Parts shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Advance Auto Parts. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 74% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 46 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 54% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Advance Auto Parts's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 33 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 67% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 47 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 53% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on Advance Auto Parts's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Advance Auto Parts? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Advance Auto Parts only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 35 |
|
28 |
|
61 |
|
46 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 60 |
|
33 |
|
46 |
|
33 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 14 |
|
34 |
|
70 |
|
47 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 49 |
|
92 |
|
76 |
|
74 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 38 |
|
49 |
|
84 |
|
51 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Advance Auto Parts shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half of the indicators are below and half above average for Advance Auto Parts. Profit Growth, with a rank of 100 (better than 100% of its competitors), and Capital Growth, with a rank of 95, are both positive, which is a healthy sign for positive development. But Sales Growth has only a rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors, and Stock Returns are at a rank of 21. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Stock returns that are a thing of the past can be less of a problem. Below-average revenue growth may be caused by divestments of underperforming businesses. If that is the case, then the positive developments of profit and capital growth are signs of a company with growth potential. If these are the reasons, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 13 |
|
23 |
|
39 |
|
18 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 46 |
|
25 |
|
19 |
|
100 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
24 |
|
92 |
|
95 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 81 |
|
75 |
|
7 |
|
21 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 26 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
67 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with alternatives), the company Advance Auto Parts has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Advance Auto Parts is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Advance Auto Parts.Leverage is at 58, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 58% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 65, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 33, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 67% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with alternatives), Advance Auto Parts has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Advance Auto Parts more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 41 |
|
66 |
|
63 |
|
58 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 43 |
|
39 |
|
76 |
|
65 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 42 |
|
73 |
|
70 |
|
33 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 38 |
|
70 |
|
84 |
|
66 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
32 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
83 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
88 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
87 |
|
38 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Advance Auto Parts from April 25, 2024.
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