Fact based stock research
PROG (NYSE:AAN)

US74319R1014

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

PROG stock research in summary

investor.progholdings.comoverviewdefault.aspx

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), PROG (Consumer Finance, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of PROG are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 70, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 13). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on PROG's financial characteristics. As the company PROG's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 13) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 70), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	63
Growth Rank	13
Safety Rank	70
Combined Rank	43

Country	USA
Industry	Consumer Finance
Index	Employee Focus US, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	Large

25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: PROG

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	63	43	43	63
GROWTH
GROWTH	5	39	41	13
SAFETY
SAFETY	79	98	77	70
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	63	74	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	81	69	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 25-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better PROG is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	63	43	43	63
GROWTH
GROWTH	5	39	41	13
SAFETY
SAFETY	79	98	77	70
COMBINED
COMBINED	39	72	57	43

Last update of combined financial performance: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of PROG the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), PROG shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for PROG. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 85, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 85% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning PROG's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 55, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 55% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 58% of alternatives (only 42% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 55% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on PROG's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	66	85	83	85
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	80	53	56	45
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	47	42	38	42
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	55
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	63	43	43	63

Last update of Value Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of PROG; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 13 (better than 13% compared with alternatives), PROG shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for PROG. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 30, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 12. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 88% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 60, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 60% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for PROG, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	3	71	8	16
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	36	36	70	12
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	57	25	30
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	35	23	93	60
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	5	39	41	13

Last update of Growth Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of PROG.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), the company PROG has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of PROG is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for PROG. Leverage is at a rank of 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 21, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), PROG has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for PROG. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with PROG and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	55	88	63	62
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	61	27	23	21
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	84	100	67	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	79	98	77	70

Last update of Safety Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of PROG and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	78	64	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	11	64	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	60	58	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	63	74	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for PROG.
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