February 15, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aareal Bank Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aareal Bank – Top 10 Stock in Deutscher Aktienindex Mid Cap MDAX
Aareal Bank is listed as a top 10 stock on February 15, 2024 in the market index MDAX because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 32 (32% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Aareal Bank on February 15, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aareal Bank Hold
| 360 METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 49 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 89 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 10 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 32 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aareal Bank are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Aareal Bank. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 89, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 89% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 49, which means that the share price of Aareal Bank is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 39, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 10, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 90% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 32, Aareal Bank is worse than 68% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 10. The negative market view on Aareal Bank may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aareal Bank negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aareal Bank is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Aareal Bank. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aareal Bank. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 13, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 87% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 15, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 85% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 10 (less encouraging than 90% compared with investment alternatives), Aareal Bank has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aareal Bank Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Aareal Bank shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Aareal Bank. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 71, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 71% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Aareal Bank's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 70% of alternatives (30% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 48, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Aareal Bank's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Aareal Bank may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aareal Bank Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 64 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 31 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 57 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 27 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), Aareal Bank shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aareal Bank. Sales Growth has a rank of 64 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 64% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 31% of competitors with a rank of 57. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 31, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 69% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 27. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aareal Bank Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 86 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 41 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 98 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 89 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Aareal Bank has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Aareal Bank is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Aareal Bank. Leverage is at a rank of 86, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 98, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 98% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 41, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives), Aareal Bank has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Aareal Bank. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Aareal Bank Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | February 15, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 49 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 63 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Aareal Bank (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, Germany) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aareal Bank are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 39) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 89), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on Aareal Bank's financial characteristics. As the company Aareal Bank's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 39), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 89) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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