Fact based stock research
AAM (NYSE:AXL)
US0240611030
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
AAM stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with investment alternatives), AAM (Auto Parts & Equipment, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AAM are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 31), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on AAM's financial characteristics. As the company AAM's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 40), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 31), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 29), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Auto Parts & Equipment |
| Index | Energy Efficient, Human Rights |
| Size class | X-Large |
25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: AAM
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 64 |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
40 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 71 |
|
89 |
|
29 |
|
31 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
|
27 |
|
36 |
|
29 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
37 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with investment alternatives), AAM (Auto Parts & Equipment, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AAM are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 31), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on AAM's financial characteristics. As the company AAM's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 40), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 31), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 29), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 64 |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
40 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 71 |
|
89 |
|
29 |
|
31 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
|
27 |
|
36 |
|
29 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 58 |
|
75 |
|
19 |
|
10 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), AAM shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for AAM. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 95, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning AAM's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 59% of alternatives (41% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 28, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on AAM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for AAM may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 100 |
|
97 |
|
95 |
|
95 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 86 |
|
97 |
|
23 |
|
28 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 47 |
|
56 |
|
67 |
|
59 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 64 |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
40 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), AAM shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for AAM. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 100, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 100% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 1, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 99% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 17 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 49 (51% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 40 |
|
44 |
|
29 |
|
1 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 70 |
|
98 |
|
4 |
|
100 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
90 |
|
93 |
|
17 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 86 |
|
57 |
|
49 |
|
49 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 71 |
|
89 |
|
29 |
|
31 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), the company AAM has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of AAM is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for AAM and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 96, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 19, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), AAM has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for AAM are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with AAM and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
8 |
|
10 |
|
8 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 88 |
|
90 |
|
94 |
|
96 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 29 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
19 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 22 |
|
27 |
|
36 |
|
29 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
11 |
|
3 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
17 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
40 |
|
37 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
14 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for AAM from April 25, 2024.
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