Fact based stock research
Vistra Energy (NYSE:VST)

US92840M1027

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Vistra Energy stock research in summary

vistracorp.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with investment alternatives), Vistra Energy (Power Producers & Traders, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Vistra Energy are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 70), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Vistra Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Vistra Energy's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 32) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 70) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	32
Growth Rank	33
Safety Rank	70
Combined Rank	32

Country	USA
Industry	Power Producers & Traders
Index	Low Emissions, Nuclear, SDG 11, SDG 15, SDG 7, SDG 8
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Vistra Energy

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	40	97	60	32
GROWTH
GROWTH	3	67	100	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	19	66	24	70
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	31	74	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	85	86	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 25-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Vistra Energy is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	40	97	60	32
GROWTH
GROWTH	3	67	100	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	19	66	24	70
COMBINED
COMBINED	14	92	84	32

Last update of combined financial performance: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Vistra Energy the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Vistra Energy shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Vistra Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 73, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 73% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Vistra Energy's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 12, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 88% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 99% of alternatives (only 1% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 53% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Vistra Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Vistra Energy could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Vistra Energy looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	73	100	95	73
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	3	87	93	47
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	52	83	7	1
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	54	55	22	12
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	40	97	60	32

Last update of Value Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Vistra Energy; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), Vistra Energy shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Vistra Energy. Sales Growth has a rank of 67 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 67% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 100. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 12, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 88% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 100% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	18	92	92	67
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	4	96	16
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	94	46	12
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	21	33	100	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	3	67	100	33

Last update of Growth Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Vistra Energy.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), the company Vistra Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Vistra Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Vistra Energy. Refinancing is at 94, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 94% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 83, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 83% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 8, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), Vistra Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Vistra Energy could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Vistra Energy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	17	68	8	8
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	57	10	96	94
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	3	89	1	83
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	19	66	24	70

Last update of Safety Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Vistra Energy and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	100	100	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	30	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	49	86	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	2	17	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	31	74	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Vistra Energy.
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