Fact based stock research
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL)

US8894781033

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Toll Brothers stock research in summary

tollbrothers.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Toll Brothers (Homebuilding, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Toll Brothers are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 75 (better than 75% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 83), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52), which means low debt burdens. ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on Toll Brothers's financial characteristics. As the company Toll Brothers's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 75), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 83), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Toll Brothers. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country USA
Industry Homebuilding
Index Dividends USA, Employee Focus US, S&P MIDCAP
Size class X-Large

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Research History: Toll Brothers

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Oct-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Toll Brothers is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Toll Brothers (Homebuilding, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Toll Brothers are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 75 (better than 75% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 83), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on Toll Brothers's financial characteristics. As the company Toll Brothers's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 75), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 83), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Toll Brothers. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 10-Nov-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Toll Brothers the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Toll Brothers shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Toll Brothers. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 81 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 81% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Toll Brothers's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 48, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 48% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 67% of alternatives (only 33% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 37% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 75, is a buy recommendation based on Toll Brothers's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Toll Brothers; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Toll Brothers shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Toll Brothers. Sales Growth has a rank of 53 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 53% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 62, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 99, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 40, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 60% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 83, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Toll Brothers.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), the company Toll Brothers has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Toll Brothers is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Toll Brothers. Leverage is at 58, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 58% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 65, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 65% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), Toll Brothers has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Toll Brothers but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 10-Nov-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Toll Brothers and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Toll Brothers.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Toll Brothers from March 21, 2024.

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